BIT Langlang · 2024-01-06 — Trend vs. Counter-Trend Trades: Room, Consolidation and Market Context Decide How Long to Hold
Reviewing ICP and BLUR longs alongside BTC and ORDI shorts, this session shows how to define trend versus counter-trend relative to the dominant wave, and how room above, large consolidation, a lower-timeframe trigger and a structural stop form one chain of evidence. Useful for understanding why similar charts end differently and when to hold short or long.
2024-01-06 · 51:09
- Check three conditions for a trend long: room up to the next supply zone, direction with the trend, and entry where a large box starts to break out.
- Place the stop at the structural invalidation point such as the move's launch level; chasing higher never justifies pulling the stop into ordinary noise.
- When BTC's bounce reaches resistance and the end of a five-wave move, stop chasing longs first; consider shorting only after a turn and a small-box breakdown.
- A counter-trend short must be reduced when the drop accelerates; even with a big target, keep at most half rather than holding for the distant goal.
- If an altcoin's structure qualifies but BTC carries pullback risk and the alt cycle is mid-to-late, lower expectations and take profits in stages.
- 5:50 Week in review and trades covered
- 7:17 ICP trend long: the three conditions
- 12:04 BLUR: same setup, no breakout
- 15:18 BTC: two counter-trend shorts compared
- 20:02 ORDI five-wave top short that couldn't be held
- 27:10 Wave degree decides short or long holding
- 33:21 Bottom-fishing after a main decline
- 48:25 Rest in chop, save capital for main uptrends
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